Россия и Африка в 21 веке

Russia Into Africa

Bob Schieffer: I'm Bob Schieffer. Andrew Schwartz: And I'm Andrew Schwartz of the Center for Strategic and International Studies and this is The Truth of the Matter. Bob Schieffer: This is a podcast where we break down the policy issues of the day. Since the politicians are having their say, we will excuse them with respect and bring in the experts, many of them from CSIS, people who have been working these issues for years. Andrew Schwartz: No spin, no bombast, no finger pointing, just informed discussion. Bob Schieffer: To get to the truth of the matter on the first ever Russia/Africa summit, we'll talk to Judd Devermont. He is the director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Prior to joining CSIS, he served as the national intelligence officer for Africa on the National Intelligence Council. Prior to that, he was the Central Intelligence Agency's senior political analyst on Sub-Saharan Africa. Bob Schieffer: Mr. Devermont also served as the National Security Council Director for Somalia, Nigeria, the Sahel, and the African Union from 2011 to 2013. Bob Schieffer: Judd Devermont, thank you so much for joining you. This is a very unusual event that's taking place, this Russia/Africa summit, and it's kind of going under the radar. But let me just start out by at describing it in a story that the Associated Press wrote. Bob Schieffer: Russian President Putin is following China's lead and making a splashy bid for influence in Africa, hosting the continent's leadership in the first ever Russia/African summit. At last count, 43 of the continents, 54 heads of state are expected to attend. I'm going to start with a question we ask most often on this podcast. What is this all about? What is Putin's motive? Why did he decide to do this, and why should people in America care about it? Judd Devermont: Yeah, thanks Bob. So this event, October 23rd to October 24th comes as you said, on the heels of both an event that the Chinese do every three years called the Forum for African-Chinese Cooperation, FOCAC. It comes on the heels of an event that Japan just did that I attended in Yokohama, and this is really about one thing. Russia wants to portray themselves as a global power. And to do that, they have to be active not just in Europe and not just meddling in our politics, but they have to be doing that in Sub-Saharan Africa. Judd Devermont: And so what they're trying to convey with this event is Russia is a great power, Russia is back. There's a couple of other, I think secondary motives. First, this is an opportunity to take lots of pot shots at the United States. So they are saying we're going to provide security assistance to those countries where the US is drawing down or where the US has human rights concerns, and so we're not going to provide them assistance. Judd Devermont: This is an opportunity for them to say, "We don't have strings attached." This is an opportunity for them to say, "Well, if the US puts sanctions on you, we'll still work with you." And so you can see there's a counter-narrative that Russia is trying to push with this event. And what the communique will ultimately say from this event is the African leaders and Russia agree in a multipolar world, in a fair world order, all of these messages that Russia is trying to portray, now they have, as you said, almost 50 African leaders who are going to sign the dotted line and say that they share that vision. Bob Schieffer: Well, let me ask you this and I read some of the articles that you wrote about this. You warn US policymakers not to portray this as some sort of a great power standoff for Russia, China, and the United States, and you note that Russia is nowhere near the power that China is, nor is it near the status of the United States. Bob Schieffer: So why should we be careful about that? Judd Devermont: Well, first of all, I think that when we call Russia a great power in Sub-Saharan Africa, we are doing Putin's bidding. That's exactly what he wants. It's almost the conundrum of our podcast today, right? We need to talk about it to explain what's happening. At the same time, we don't want to give this much airtime to this event, but they're not a great power in Sub-Saharan Africa. They're a minnow, right? Compared to what the United States does, compared to what Europe does, compared to what China does. Judd Devermont: Their investments are a lot smaller, their partnerships are a lot smaller and a lot more narrow in terms of scope, but Russia wants to be called a great power, and to be quite honest, Bob, we have been calling them a great power in Africa. That's central to the national security strategy document that came out of the NSC. It's part of the NDS, the National Defense Strategy. It's front and center in the John Bolton speech from December where he unveiled the African policy. Judd Devermont: But to do that, I think one, it benefits Russia and two, we set ourselves up for a dynamic where every time we talk about Russia being important and African leaders cozying up to Russia triggers our assistance so we can compete, we create this really negative loop where an African leader says, "Well, if I need more assistance from the United States, I'm going to go see Russia and then the US will come in with assistance." So we got to get out of that whole game. //  www.csis.org